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Dutch risk analysis uses a category 5 hurricane and a tsunami on Sint Maarten as planning scenarios, not forecasts
The Kingdom's 2026 national risk analysis describes a category 5 hurricane striking Sint Maarten/Saint-Martin and the tsunami risk for the islands as planning scenarios to test preparedness, not forecasts.
By SXM Daily ·
A Dutch government risk study works through what a category 5 hurricane hitting Sint Maarten/Saint-Martin, and a tsunami reaching the Caribbean islands, could do. These are planning scenarios used to test how well the Kingdom is prepared. They are not forecasts, and the report does not say such events are expected.
Illustrative: a 2024 satellite image of a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea, not related to the report. Photo: GOES imagery: CSU/CIRA & NOAA / Wikimedia Commons, public domain
The cases appear in the climate and natural disasters theme report of the 2026 national security risk analysis (Rijksbrede Risicoanalyse Nationale Veiligheid), published by RIVM. The report says its scenarios are fictional but plausible stories, written so that experts can score their likelihood and impact. The analysis is produced once every four years and is being presented to the Dutch parliament, according to a Justice Ministry memo dated 16 October 2026.
The hurricane scenario
In the scenario, a very strong hurricane with winds of about 300 km/h hits the island early on 6 September and takes 35 hours to weaken. Damage reaches almost €2 billion, the port and airport are badly hit, and supplies are slow to arrive. Saba and Statia are also affected. The report puts the chance of a hurricane of the strongest category hitting the Windward Islands at about once in 40 years (pages 44–45).
The tsunami risk
On page 32, the report notes that the islands are low-lying, with hotels, airports and power and water plants close to the coast. Because tsunamis are hard to predict and leave little time to warn and evacuate, it says their effects could be worse than a hurricane's.
For residents: the report changes no warnings or advice. Follow official guidance from the Office of Disaster Management on the Dutch side and the Préfecture on the French side.
Sources
- https://www.rivm.nl/sites/default/files/2026-10/Themarapport-Klimaat--en-natuurrampen.pdf
- https://www.tweedekamer.nl/downloads/document?id=2026D51878
Source: https://www.rivm.nl/sites/default/files/2026-10/Themarapport-Klimaat--en-natuurrampen.pdf